Budget 2018: Economic Survey 2017-18 out today- Were past editions accurate?

Economic Survey 2018 India

BUDGET 2018 - After the 2009-10 economic survey, which projected economic growth on the dot for 2010-11, most surveys in succeeding years have been off track in predicting growth. Surprisingly, the only other exception was the survey of 2015-16 that pegged economic growth in a range of 7-7.75 per cent for 2016-17 and actual growth was indeed 7.1 per cent. The growth fell in the range predicted by the survey despite the year witnessing demonetisation. The major setback in terms of prediction could be the survey of 2010-11, which had forecast growth to be nine per cent for 2011-12 (plus or minus 0.25 per cent) but growth fell down to just 6.5 per cent. Nine per cent growth has remained wishful thinking in recent times even after the change in the GDP computation methodology, which many say overestimates the growth.

Let us now see the focus of the four surveys presented under the Modi government, three of which were authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian's team. The first one was authored by a team led by another Arvind -- then economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram.

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